Re: EV vs Players
schneids,
think of all the things that go into a calculation of expected value. if you were to model it, the error term would be huge, easily capturing more variance in the model than the parameters themselves. in english, this means that overall if you did tons of these models, the intangibles would win out in terms of explicative power.
basically, i dont think observed EV tells you a whole lot...as a good player you can see for yourself mistakes people are making att he time they are making them. if these mistakes are big enough that you feel you have an edge. have a seat.
when there are 3 good players in a game w/ two fish, id really only consider sitting if that one fish is just spewing and the other one is bad. you're paying basically a fee to the good players to sit and play against the fish (if you are -ev vs. the good players). if you're break even vs. them, you should sit to get the fishes money. either way. its a gamble.
Barron
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