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Old 10-18-2005, 01:45 PM
DpR DpR is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 76
Default Re: Calling 1 bet on the river and Time weighted EV

I THINK most posters understand this concept even when they are talking about these river calls.

IMO, the more important concept is our ability to estimate this EV. For this decision usually comes down to a determination of whether we are good 1-10 or even far less. Even if we we in 'comparable' situations like this every day, it is very difficult to cognitively recognize when we are good enough when the probability needs to only be so small. If our odds were 50/50 it would be easier since we could remember from experience that " I am definitely not good here more than not". However, if we win 1 time in ten it very well may seem that we NEVER win. The points is, it is very very difficult to even know if the EV is close.

Now, given we are unsure of our EV we should tend to make the decision that, if we are wrong in our EV estimate, will cost us the least. In these all of nothing scenarios to win the pot, calling is the better play. Add the fact that the more you DON't call, the more correct it becomes to call and the decision to call is even better.

IMO, this growing trend to make folds for 1 bet on the river is caused by player overconfidnece and, unlike some other mistakes, is easily exploitable.
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