[DMBFan23]

some value is lost because I can't beat too many other aces-up hands that he might have, but I might get a call from like A9o/A6o no diamond, or from a hand like 78 or 75. him checking really gives you a free pass to bet because he's screaming at you that he doesn't have a high diamond...and given the action so far, the small ones shouldn't be as big a part of his range except for maybe like Ax4d or Ax6d. so at that point you just need to know that he'll call with a worse two pair or a ace with a good kicker to compensate for the times he DOES show up with 5x6d. You can't be sure, but we don't need to be *sure* - only need to be good just over half the time we're called...it's funny, people usually bet out at these rivers because 'he wouldn't bet on that board if I check' and yet when they check and you do bet worse hands somehow find a way to call.

it's probably thin but with A8 it becomes a little clearer IMO.


if you get checked to on the river, and you're not sure, instead of trying to rationalize whether you're good 55% of the time, ask yourself if you're EVER good...we have plenty of experience checking behind (being too conservative in value betting) so by pushing the envelope (being slightly too aggressive in value betting) we can find where the equilibrium point is. by checking behind, you can SEE his worse hand, but by betting he might call with it, probably won't checkraise you, and you get to find out what's worth a value bet and what isn't. you are only wasting a fraction of a bet, if anything (they really do call with some bad hands...) and the investment is worth it if it helps you lean where the right cutoff point is (for instance, if your third pair value bets are often outkicked, then you might start to consider second pair O.K. kicker a value bet when you didn't before. of course this is board and action dependant, but I hope the point about adjusting the scale makes sense) hell, maybe you'll discover that hands like this aren't.


anyways, he folded the river.