[Shillx]

Let's say that we check/fold to any turn A or Q. If the turn card isn't an ace or queen we will call-call no matter what comes on the river. Even if a deuce comes off we will just call for the sake of this exercise.

His range: 55+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+

Our 4th Street Win% = 36

EVfold now = 0

EVcalldown = .851(.36*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .86 BB
EVfold turn = .148*-0.5BB = -.07 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.8 BB

This plan should work as long as you can count on him to put bets in with less then what you have. If he will sometimes give up on the river then it is closer, but calling down in this spot seems okay.

Brad

If we fold to any turn broadway...

EVcalldown = .596(.41*9.75BB - 2.5BB) = + .89 BB
EVfold turn = .404*-0.5BB = - .2 BB

EVnet = ~ + 0.7 BB

*Edited to say that I accidentally put in those times that we will call (on the river) even when our 2-pair turns to crap. So the actual EV will be somewhat higher then predicted since we would fold when the board is double paired.