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Old 10-16-2005, 02:28 PM
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Default Results/Further Thoughts

I folded.

Afterwards, however, I wondered if raising to try to win the pot might be a reasonable play.

Here is my thinking. The Villain had shown massive aggression post-flop (and pre-flop, though tight). The board paired, making it less likely he hit his hand (assuming he did not have a pocket pair). If he missed his hand, the flop bet could simply be a continuation bet.

Given his tight nature, if he missed his hand, I think he might have folded to a check-raise. (I unintentionally omitted saying that he had not gone to any showdowns -- he either folded or was able to get his opponents to fold previously.) With 10.5 SB in the pot, if I raised (2 SB), that means I need to win the pot right then a little less than 20% of the time. (And I'm not putting any more money in U/I.) With Villain's stats, I wonder if I do get him to fold 20% of the time. I still suspect not because I wouldn't expect him to bet into 3 people, but a continuation bet is so common here . . . anyhow, that's why I posted this hand.
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