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Old 10-12-2005, 01:08 PM
deception5 deception5 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 59
Default Re: 2 Outs enough for this flop call?

Easy fold on the flop. I wouldn't even consider the flush possibility as helpful - the fact that there are only 10 diamonds left in the deck does not significantly change the odds of someone making a flush and your one card flush is going to win the pot about as often as your pair of 5's unimproved.

The problem is that even if you catch your 5, there's a 20% chance that a flush possibility comes out and you will often lose a pile of money when that happens. Your 5 also gives a gutshot to a 3/4 which are both possibile holdings against loose players.

There's also a reasonable chance that the flop will be raised by anyone holding a flush draw or an ace costing you multiple bets to get to the turn.

Finally, you have a lot of money to make up if you actually do hit your set. So even if you are able to recover 10+SB you are just breaking even in the longterm. You need to make more to actually show a profit. The risk just doesn't seem to be worth the reward here.
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