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we should be teaching our children probability theory at an early age. I think it should start in about the third grade

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This is 100% correct - we should.

However, another percentage ... what percentage of 3rd grade teachers could correctly teach it?



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I used to teach fourth grade. The probability section was at the end of the textbook. I enjoyed teaching it, but didn't get to it every year.

So in order to teach probability the teacher would have to make it a priority by teaching it out of order.

If they are lucky most kids will get a few weeks in middle school and maybe a few weeks in high school.