[rikz]

[ QUOTE ]
... you are saying it is more likely than not that he does not have an A or a K. When in actuality he probably has an A or K ~75% here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is >50% that villain has a low pocket pair, suited connector or semi-connectors, or a weak Axs or a weak Kxs. Any of these, even the weak TPWK hands would be likely to fold to a strong continuation bet if they didn't flop a set and there was no straight or flush draw to go along with their weak pairs. I always make a note of guys that call continuation bets with A3s for a TPWK with no flush draw. They call too much, so I value bet more when I play hands with them later.