View Single Post
  #9  
Old 09-23-2005, 11:52 AM
DoomSlice DoomSlice is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 582
Default A Sober Hypothesis!

Sober now, and I'm thinking about it a bit more. Let's say you play a game with your friend where you toss a coin and win $1 every time Heads comes up.

Then let's suppose you get extremely lucky and win 20 times in a row.

My (revised) hypothesis is that if you play this game every day until the day you die, there will be a non-zero probability that the mean will be centered around 20, and NOT zero. What I guess I'm saying is that things do not "regress" back to the mean, since you are as likely to go on another 20 game hot streak than you are to go on a 20 game loss (even over time).
Reply With Quote