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Old 09-23-2005, 11:42 AM
Cyrus Cyrus is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Tundra
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Default Dues

If the Roulette wheel is going to be spun k times without a zero coming up, then it is expected that red will come up k/2 times and so will black. However, if the first trial comes up red, then the "expectation" has tilted slightly towards red, since the rest of the trials, i.e. k-1 trials, are still expected to come up evenly split between red and black. But, after those k trials, red is "expected" to have come up [(k-1)/2]+1 times.

Of course, that "expectation" includes trials already performed! The truth is that for the k-1 remaining trials, the result of the 1st trial means nothing.

As pzhon wrote
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If a red comes up on a roulette wheel, this neither means reds are hot, nor that blacks are due.

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