Re: A Drunk Hypothesis!
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Given a series of N Bernoulli tries each with p=1/2,
E[(# succesful trials / # total trials) | 1st trial is a success] = (n+2)/(2n+2).
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E = [1 + (N-1)/2]/N = (N+1)/(2N).
So your n must be the N-1 trials which exclude the first trial, n = N-1.
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