[ramjam]

Dear ML4L

I think you have outthought yourself too quickly into a monsters-under-the-bed paralysis.

1) The principles of your EV calculation are fine - but the parameters seem way skewed. You start of with the assertion that this guy is loose aggressive and will raise with pretty much any two cards. But then proceed to the conclusion that it's 45% likely that (i) he had a pocket pair and (ii) he hit a set on the flop. One pair or nothing seem just as likely. Take the chance of a set down to 10 or 20%, bump up one pair to 20%, factor in a little for stone cold bluff, allocate the balance to flush draw (see 2 below) and I would guess your EV for calling looks a lot healthier.

2) Try to analyse the situation from his perspective. His style is consistently aggressive. If he believes there is a good chance you will lay down a strong hand under pressure, betting the max on a semi-bluff flush draw looks very attractive. There's $120 in the pot to steal. If he bets your stack size of $225 into it and gets called, he can count on roughly 1/3 equity in a pot of $570 = $190. Effectively he's risking an EV of -$35 if he's called to win $120 if you fold. If he thinks you'll fold just one time in four, he'll be making a profit on the play. When he bets out I would be much more inclined to believe he's on a flush draw than a stronger made hand.