Re: Testing advantage, prob Q for David and Mason
To elaborate on David's post, the standard deviation is derived from the formula SQRT(npq) where n is the number of trials, p is the probability of success and q the probability of failure. So the SQRT(10000 * .5 * .5) = 50, which is only approximate for blackjack because of added variance for doubling down, splitting, blackjacks, etc. But it is close enough. If you think you have a 2% advantage, your expected return would be 1.02 times your average bet - if you could achieve this advantage by flat betting one dollar per hand (good luck!) you would expect to be 200 dollars ahead after 10,000 hands. Since one standard deviation is 50, 2/3 of the time your result should be between 10,150 and 10,250. Hope that helps-
doormat
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