Re: 10,000 hand of bad beats, whats the odds?
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i always remembered 3 SD covering 99.7%. This would make one sided 0.15% and the answer likely in the middle of the two replies (~1/700). Anyway cool refresher with the two posters. I had forgotten a lot of the logic behind that. also, let me know if i'm off on this. that number just sticks out in my head...
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It isn't exactly 3 SD, it is 4/1.3 SD. I told you that the exact answer was computed from NORMSDIST(-4/1.3) = 1 in 956.
I only used 3 SD as an approximation for doing it in your head, and I rounded the 1-sided 99.87% to 99.9% or 1 in 1000, since 4/1.3 is a little larger than 3.
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