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Old 09-06-2005, 09:34 PM
squiffy squiffy is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 816
Default Re: Katrina and Real Estate

Hard to say. Need to know more about the numbers involved.

But, in general, destruction due to natural disasters and major wars is long-term negative for economic growth and inflationary.

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/A..._Inflation.asp

Think of it this way. Homes represent money, labor, and materials invested in shelter. All those homes destroyed. Less wealth left in nation. Now more wealth, which could have been saved for emergencies or spent on education or defense must be spent on rebuilding homes. And 500,000 people who could have been working, cannot work or create wealth. If people were already on welfare, no change in working status, but huge increase in amount of aid other Americans need to provide.

So net drain on American wealth. Less wealth. Constant money supply. Increased prices. Plus Fed keeps interest rate constant or lowers interest rate to stimulate economy, long term inflationary of money supply and prices.

Imagine a country with 10 people. Every day they work. They pick 10 coconuts each. Say wealth created is 100 coconuts a day.

If 2 people killed and 3 homeless, then wealth creation now cut to 50 cononuts a day. Plus any coconuts saved must be spent on rebuilding homes.

So the only question is what percentage of the nation's wealth has been destroyed, and how much wealth creation is lost due to homelessness and lack of jobs, etc. Sounds like a big problem.

Same analysis with war. Some nations can profit if they suffer no military losses or war is not fought on their land.

But say German nation in WW II. Homes destroyed. Millions of Germans, Russians, French, etc. killed and no longer working. Billions of dollars spent on bullets, tanks, submarines, bombs, etc. intended solely to kill and destroy. Entire cities firebombed into ashes. Destructive of wealth. So inflationary long-term effects. Substantial reduction in supply of wealth and consumer goods for years. Granted reduction in demand too. But proportionate reduction in wealth creation far greater.

Everyone fighting. No one growing food.

Imagine two villages of 5 people. Each picks 10 coconuts a day. Wealth of two villages 100 coconuts.

Imagine war kills 3 people in each village and all huts destroyed. During war, solders cannot pick coconuts. And people at home who are not fighting war have to share their coconuts with soldiers to feed them. So everyone has less to eat.

Now net wealth is 40 coconuts. And the living people cannot even pick the 10 coconuts a day, because they have to spend time rebuilding destroyed homes, etc.
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