Re: Regarding Jek\'s/BW\'s break-even points for BBJ (long)
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On the following tables there is NO JACKPOT and a very simple rake-structure of $1 when the pot is large enough:
At 2/4 you have 60% of the hands raked exactly $1.
At 15/30 you have 80% of the hands raked exactly $1.
Which table does the rake of a greater impact?
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As in online poker, slots, etc. the % raked is smaller as you move up in stakes. You will pay more money in rake/vig at higher level, but the percentage is less.
The reason people play the lower limits is they can't afford to lose an amount needed to play there and/or they are not skilled enough to beat the skill level.
If someone offered me a one in 20 chance to wager my house to win $10 million, although obviously +EV, I would never be able to do.
This game is very hard to beat you would have to agree, being a loser 95% of the time.
I think this can be compared to a NL tournament. If you have a 52% chance of doubling up (risking all your chips), it is not always correct to take this bet. +EV is purely a mathematical concept.
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Looking at it again:
At 2/4 you have a rake of $6 on 60% of the hands.
At 15/30 you have a rake of $6 on 80% of the hands.
I think this clears up the answer a bit...because clearly the 2/4 game is virtually unbeatable, while one would STILL be able to break-even on the 15/30 game.
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There is a number that makes it +EV, although it is alot higher than the BBJ we are discussing.
At $2/$4 you need less of a jackpot to be +EV. It absolutely has no bearing on you being able to walk away a winner more often.
Take 100 hands at each:
$2/$4 you pay $360 towards the jackpot
$15/$30 you pay $480 towards the jackpot
A skilled player would have an easier time making the $480 at the higher level back than $360 at the lower level, but think of the people who lose.
Are they going to feel the same way?
Would your rather spend $360 to win a large jackpot or $480 to win this same jackpot?
As in my betting the house example, +EV does not need to mean ability to walk away a winner most of the time.
You have the ability to beat $15/$30 it seems and is probably +EV to you but not the average person. The pursuit of the jackpot does not factor into this by the way.
It is an interesting concept
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