Re: Weak top pair and then an overcard turns
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If you check and he bets you lose 1 BB about 80% of the time.
If you bet and he calls you win 1 BB about 40% of the time, lose 1 BB about 40% of the time, and he folds about 20% of the time.
If you check then he checks you win probably 70% of the time.
So I think it is a bet.
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I don't see how you can draw this conclusion from those percentages. First off, the %'s given are complete estimations (if you have hand ranges to back these %'s up, please provide them). Second off, unless you have the conditional probability of him betting if you check, the above numbers can't even be used in a math equation to justify your conclusion.
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