Re: Short handed poker, Ed Miller, Bunching Effect, The Price is Right
hehe, funny you bring this up. the ol' Let's make a deal statistical obscurity. funny how many absurd arguments this brings up amongst intelligent folks over cocktail partys about causality, the difference between Bayesians and Frequentists, etc.
In let's make a deal... you have only 3 possible outcomes to look at. You count the number of times a swithch could be beneficial and the nubmer of times it couldn't.
the problem with poker is that calculating the probability any of 9 opponents (or even 5) in front of you might have had AA is a huge multi tiered decision tree in of combinatorics. i suppose it might be workable for soley AA within a few hours. but... how does that help your game?
in reallity we are much more likely to worry about say holding somehting like JJ and raising 3 preflop callers who between them might hold 2-3 overcards (a combinatorial problem of absurd magnitude with assumptions about the likelyhood of certains players to call with A6o, etc) and then evaluate the massive possible post flop scenarios.
ugh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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