Ramming and jamming with a small flush-draw against a large field who are all excited about their hands once a two-flush flops is highly problematic. The reason is because the likelihood of at least one other opponent also being on a flush-draw becomes quite high. Once the flop comes, we are out of the realm of random probability and into the realm of conditional probability. Players don't play random cards. They play cards that fit that flop. One way is for someone else besides yourself to also be on a flush-draw when a two-flush flops. When this happens, you set yourself up to lose a lot of money if you just blindly raise. Not only do the chances of you making a flush go down but the risk of drawing dead is quite real. When you happen to make your flush and lose, you lose a ton.


In Chapter 29 - Playing The Draw, Gary dismisses the concern about being up against a higher flush-draw. It has nothing to do with "made hand versus a draw perspective" as Gary contends. In a community card game, one flush frequently loses to a bigger flush when a lot of players want to take off cards once the flop comes. Gary makes the same mistake a number of other intelligent guys with computer simulation experience make. They merely look at their own chances of making the hand they want and set aside what other players figure to have given the particulars of the situation. It is like they assume thier opponents hold random cards which is flat-out wrong. His statement: "If you have a flush then the chances of someone else having a flush are fairly small" is ludicrous given the situation he has outlined. You have four or five opponents paying multiple bets to take off cards and see the turn when a two-flush flops. The likelihood of more than one player being on a flush-draw is quite high.


In fact, there are many situations in holdem where you should dump a baby flush-draw when a large field is betting and raising. Here is an example from a $20-$40 game. You are in the big blind with the 8h-5h. Two early players, two middle players, the button, and the small blind limp. You take a free play. There is $140 in the pot and seven players. The flop is: Ks-Qh-3h, giving you a tiny flush-draw. The small blind checks. You check. An early player bets. Another early player raises. A middle player cold-calls. The button cold-calls. The small blind cold-calls. What do you do? You should fold. You have six opponents who took this flop. Five of them are willing to pay two bets to see the turn. In many cases you are drawing dead and will lose big bucks when you make your flush only to lose to a higher flush. On the hand in question, the player called. It got raised again and capped back to him. He called all that as well. He made his flush on the turn, only to be shown the nut flush by the small blind when a blank came at the river. He complained that he had taken a "bad beat". But this was a "bad beat" he did not have to take.