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Old 07-28-2005, 06:10 PM
AleoMagus AleoMagus is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Victoria BC
Posts: 252
Default Re: 30+ buyins, mathematical explanation required

[ QUOTE ]
How do you find your standard deviation ? It's hard for me to believe we can get a good number for that.




[/ QUOTE ]

Standard deviation per tournamnet in SNG poker is equal to

SQRT((F1)(p1^2)+(F2)(p2^2)+(F3)(p3^2)+(Fn)(pn^2)+( W^2))

where,
F1= probability of finishing 1st
F2= probability of finishing 2nd
F3= proabability of finishing 3rd
Fn= probability of finishing nth

(note: all OTM finishes may be combined as one probability for ease of calculation)

p1= Net profit for 1st
p2= net profit for 2nd
p3= Net profit for 3rd
pn= Net profit(loss) for nth

W= win(loss) rate in net $/tourney

Or, you can just use one of the spreadsheets out there which calculates this for you.

www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet

My 'confidence calculator' on this site has a pretty simple spreadsheet which will do this.

As for how 'good' these numbers are, I can't be exactly sure what you mean, but I will say that I think SD is a very reliable stat. This is mostly just because your SD will change so little so long as you are a winning player. Bigger winners will have a slightly higher SD, but almost all players will have an SD of 1.6-1.8 buy-ins (or 1,6-1,8 for those in chile).

Regards
Brad S
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