[gildwulf]

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If we're going on crappy poker analogies, that's like saying you should never try and play the 215s because 4 years ago when you sucked at poker you had a bad losing streak:P

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Well, the "-EV" part was the only poker-related thing I put in there, and it was kind of a throwaway line. It certainly wasn't my aim to make it a poker analogy. Seriously, this is how 99% of these go:

Months 1-3: You pass up prime opportunities with women who are better looking than your current girlfriend. Your girlfriend may do the same.
Month 4: You cheat, quite possibly with someone who is worse looking than your girlfriend, just because you miss sex that much. Your girlfriend may do the same.
Months 5-7: Somewhere in here, one of the two finds out about the cheating and you break it off, either because one of you has found someone better (and by "better" I mean "close enough to have sex with frequently") or because you've simply fallen out of touch with her. Gee, I wonder why. Couldn't be the thousand miles of separation.

All the while, you will regret having passed up the opportunities you had in months 1-3.

The "expected value" of a long-distance relationship is heartbreak and sexual frustration. Understand that when you enter into one of these, you are going against the odds. Good luck anyway.

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Wow, this is pretty jaded...I'm interested in hearing about people's actual experiences as well...