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Old 07-19-2003, 12:02 AM
kelvin474 kelvin474 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Inside I-495, 1.5 hours to FOXWOODS
Posts: 96
Default Re: Suck out or bad play???????

you have GOT to bet that flop. You can't give a free card to any number of decent hands. 2 pair, a set, AK with K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] , maybe a lone K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] even, will all call you I think in this situation, some correctly (K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] is getting 6:1 to see the turn card but is only 38:7 against making a bigger flush on the turn, 44 or 99 is also 38:7 against beating you on the turn with a boat or 4 of a kind; AA also, but that guy would raise preflop most likely.

But most of the opposing hands are not getting odds to call you. When you check, you are giving them a play with positive EV (check behind and take a free shot at the (and your) nuts, and when you bet, they have to choose between a play with 0 EV (folding) and a play with negative EV (calling or horrors, raising (dare we hope for that? [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] ).

Another problem i think is this: What do you want them to make, so they will call a bet? those clubs are still sitting on the board, so they're probably not going to stay in if they can't beat a flush, especially the times that another club comes on turn or river.

You need somebody to make a second best hand without a club coming. That will probably kill your action if you are winning, but then the K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] will steal your lunch money if it is out there.

In summary, I don't think it is likely that someone's gonig to make a payoff hand ihere. A club scares em and if you have to check to keep them around, it sounds like they're pretty scared of the flush already.
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