Re: Set vs. flush draw
hmm, where to begin...
he doesn't need to his his gutshot on the river, he already has you beat
you're 3.4:1 to fill/quad, not 4.3:1
but that's the point, you don't have x-ray vision... trying to put your opponent on an exact hand and then acting accordingly is a classic beginner mistake in NLH... you should put him on a range of hands and assign probabilities to each and make your decision that way... and the math says if there's even a 5% chance he doesn't have a flush you should call
if you're really, really more than 95% sure he has a flush you can fold, but given the action I just don't think you can be that confident (after all, why did he call the flop???)
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