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Old 07-18-2005, 12:06 PM
ArtVandelay ArtVandelay is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 106
Default Re: Set vs. flush draw

I think the turn laydown is probably a mistake, although not a big one

it's 600 to you with 1675 in the pot, so you need to win 26.4% of the time for a call to be correct; here's your odds against various hands for villain:

flush w/ 6d: 20.5%
flush w/out 6d: 22.7%
lower set: 97.7%
two pair: 100%
flush draw: 81.8%

if there's even a 5% chance he doesn't have a flush then you have odds to call, and in my experience it's almost impossible to put someone on a hand with more than 90% certainty
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