Re: 1000 to 1 favor and lost!
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
While I do appreciate the humor, and 1 in 1,000 shots certainly do happen, it is a misunderstanding of probability and statistics to think that a 1 in 1,000 shot bad beat will happen around 45 times in 45,000 hands. It actually will happen far far less, and the math involved is a lot more complicated than just, oh its a 1 in 1,000 shot so it will happen once every thousand hands. If you really have had 38 of these in 45,000 hands you are running ridiculously bad (I'm sure your post was just a joke though).
[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm not a mathematician, but I always thought I was decent enough at math and probability. I thought that given enough trials, a 1/1000 shot would occur roughly N times out of N thousand; it might be a little more or a little less. Could you explain what you're talking about, please? I'm prepared to accept that my understanding is incorrect, but I'd like to see some kind of support for your assertion.
-Mike
[/ QUOTE ]
It would happen 1 in 1000 times you were in this situation. but for it to happen 1 time every thousand hands, you'd need to be a 999-1 favorite every hand.
|