[Nfinity]

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He is no better off than us in that regard, he can't know if it helped us either.

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The main difference is, he doesn't care. Your average micro-limit player is thinking about his cards and the board and close to nothing else.


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A lot of players will look at their hopeless hand, realise they're easily beaten and dump it

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On the Flop, yes. On the Turn, sometimes. On the River with the action you've showed him not likely. For 1 bet he gets to see your hand. The reason we don't make this sort of play very often in the micro-limits is because of the "Average" player. Thats why value-betting is so strongly enforced at these limits.

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(even ignoring the fact that we raised PF and so a 3 or 7 is extremely unlikely).

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Even if villian was remotely cognizant of these kind of judgemnts, wouldn't that be even more of a reason for him to call us down?

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If he folds a better hand just 20% of the time though, this bluff is profitable

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I don't even think we are folding villian 20% of the time, let alone having it be a better hand.

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He faces the same small chance of winning / small pot scenario that we did when deciding to bet.

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Seriously, the only better hand I possibly think we are scaring away with this bet is A-high. We are risking 1BB to win 4.5BB to eliminate that miniscule range of holdings, as opposed to checking it through.

The correct application for this bet is on the Turn. We are not only forcing him to call a bet with a weak hand(if he has one) but we are sort of making the promise of a follow-up on the River. The place for a typical passive opponent to fold is the Turn, when bets get steeper and it's more likely you won't improve with just 1 more card to come. On the River, with anything your fish are more apt to call you down, just for those rare occasions that they get to catch you doing exactly what you are advocating.

I would go ahead and say bet the Turn, but I really think the advice is biased by this conversation, and villians River Check.