Re: KJo, rag flop
Well, we're never going to be positive the river didn't improve him. He is no better off than us in that regard, he can't know if it helped us either. He could have been taking a shot at the pot with bottom pair or middle pair or something on the flop, and got scared by the fact that he was called.
I think an average (read: bad) opponent is definitely capable of folding here. A lot of players will look at their hopeless hand, realise they're easily beaten and dump it (even ignoring the fact that we raised PF and so a 3 or 7 is extremely unlikely).
That's an average player though, so yes some sort of read on his river tendancies helps here. If he folds a better hand just 20% of the time though, this bluff is profitable (and a better hand could even just be ace high at this point, which he is very likely to lay down to this scary river). He faces the same small chance of winning / small pot scenario that we did when deciding to bet.
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