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Old 07-05-2005, 11:28 AM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: ugly combo draw hand

[ QUOTE ]
I would have potted the flop, mostly because a < half pot bet multiway generally means Villain has whiffed. (from my experience, we've had this discussion before) Given you called multiway you're announcing that you don't have a hand. (as did UTG) BB either has a monster or has recognized this and is betting with nothing. Unfortunately, you have no hand so you really have no business trying to figure out which one it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like raising the flop. if utg+2 has a 3, there is a 90+% chance he's smooth-calling, especially if he's loose enough to be in the pot with a 3 (yes, even with a flush draw out). if BB has a 3 (unlikely), then he'll probably reraise and i lose my chance to stack him. i don't think either player folds a 7. just calling the flop gives me a chance to keep the pot small and take a cheap look and try to bust someone.

the turn is much dicier. i called, but i don't know if it was the right play. there are 9 spades, 6 straight cards, and 3 aces that help my hand. it's sort of unclear how to figure for implied odds - i might river a 2 and stack him, or i might river a 2 and go broke against 77. if i have 15 outs then i'm 1/3 and i have express odds to call.

one problem is that if a spade hits, he should be able to fold a hand like 99 as there would then be pretty much he could beat (except maybe A7), and a 6 would put 3467 on the board, which he might also get away from. given that he raised pre-flop, i think it's pretty unlikely he has a 3, so i think the only time my flush/straight outs are not good are when he has 77 or something like TT and the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hits. it's definitely close, and the issue of not wanting to risk going broke early is in there, but i think calling is marginally correct.

here's the rest of the hand. anyone make a thin value bet at the end?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Hero (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)
MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls t15, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t30</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, SB folds.

Flop: (t105) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t50</font>, UTG+2 calls t50, Hero calls t50.

Turn: (t255) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t250</font>, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls t250.

River: (t755) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t755
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