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Old 07-01-2005, 03:06 PM
citanul citanul is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 64
Default Re: Whats your Finish Distribution at the 109\'s and 215\'s

well, a few things:

a) your 1st is not "way below" your 2nd and 3rds, it's 1.x% lower.
b) i/we have no idea what your sample size is.
c) it looks like you're making money. i'm too lazy too check what roi your numbers spit out, but i'm assuming it's nicely positive.
d) given (b) it could just be variance.
e) you appear to not bust out 10th and 9th enough. i don't mean this as a joke at all. there's lots of idiots running around on these tables, and if you're not getting all in with them and getting sucked out on a nice little chunk of the time, you're not getting your money in (good) enough.
f) i/we don't know if this is all your sngs or your last x sngs or whatever, and if so, if you have a block of sngs before this. if this is just your most recent large chunk of sngs, and your results are markedly different than they were before, you should look at your game some. your flattish 6th-1st distribution is pretty concerning. i'd assume that this means that you should check out (e) and that you're also loosening up a little too early a bit of the time.
g) the general concensus for "i'm not getting 1st enough" is that you're not getting to the money or heads up with enough of the chips to start with. at least that's the answer most of the time. from the looks of it, this looks to be sort of your problem. an even distribution would be endemic of getting to 6thish with an average stack every game and then playing averagely. again, that should be +ev, but you could be making more.
h) i'm going to say that my first piece of advice would be to take more chances 3 handed. your itm is nice (hell, your roi is nice too).

there's two parts to getting to 1st: getting to hu, and then having more chips than the other guy. say you make the money 40% of the time and you have an average stack (as do the other 2) each time. then the first thing you do 3 handed is run it out with someone 50/50 every game. so you have 20% total finishes 3rds. but then you've got a 2/1 chip lead heads up, so you should win about 2/3 of the remaining 20% of games, which is about 13.5%. clearly this strategy isn't optimal, but if you make some changes to it, it gets closer and closer to optimal. for instance, sometimes, your opponents go to war before you get a chance to run with them. and in practice, you should be able to get your money in as a favorite against the standard competition at most levels in the money. so the 50/50 figure drifts ever closer to 60/40 or so. etc. etc. etc.

hope any of that was helpful.

citanul
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