Re: Overpair to a monotone flop -- how\'s my river value bet look?
Ok, I need to clarify. I really did not mean to say some of the outs were already folded. I DID mean to say that some were likely in other players' hands. There are only a few hands that do not contain a diamond that will stay past the flop. Mine is one of them. I'm not necessarily mathematically changing things because of this, but I believe it is true, and favorable to my position. Second, I believe given the pre-flop action that several opponents may have aces or kings in their hands, perhaps two players with AK, one AdKx, the other AxKd. This is helpful, since it effectively reduces the number of times I'm drawn out on by overcards that haven't improved by the turn. The confluence of these two factors (the shared overcards and the diamonds) are helpful to my hand, rather than harmful.
As for why I just called the flop, it was to limit my investment until I could see how the turn came. My hand, IF it was good on the flop, was set to either go way up, or way down, in value on the turn depending on what hit. Additionally, not raising the flop meant I could (potentially) offer tougher odds to my opponents on the turn with a raise. Also, as I noted, a flop raise would have been meaningless, as it would not have folded out any high one-card diamond draws. They'd have the odds to continue, and they would in fact continue... worst of all worlds.
Also, I agree that I cannot "rule out" AA/KK/QQ, but I do think they're less likely from the MP player once we've seen his turn action. CO is very curious, as he coldcalled two bets TWICE pre-flop. That's a strong hand for a 20/1/1, assuming my stats are at all indicative of his playing style. What is CO coldcalling twice PF and then continuing with that I can beat on the end? AKs non diamonds? AQs? Pocket 10s? The other two jacks for a tie? The range for CO seems pretty limited, which is why I posted the hand. Can anyone think of potential CO hands that I'm missing? Also, is anyone worried that a value bet might draw a raise from MP3? I assume we're folding to any raise on the end...
|