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Old 06-07-2005, 04:51 PM
schwza schwza is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 113
Default Re: 88 Overpair vs Maniac

you're calling 3k to win 7.7k total, so you need to be about 40% to be even chip-wise. a lot of the times you're ahead it will be against Ax, so he'll have 10 outs; you're ~ 60%. when you're behind you'll have 2 outs ~ 8%. so you need to be 60% a little more than half, and some times you'll be 75% (if he has no gut shot, or 66), and against specifically 77 you're 92%. so you probably need to be ahead something like 40-45% of the time. if he's overbetting all-in frequently, or if he's been raising a lot in addition to the times he's gotten a-i, i think that tilts it towards a call.

it's obviously very player dependent, but i'm inclined to call. having 3 bigger stacks on your left makes me value a monster stack more. and if you lose, you're still alive.
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