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Old 06-03-2005, 10:26 PM
cferejohn cferejohn is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: San Jose, CA
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Default Re: Super Thursday Hand: 77 in EP

[ QUOTE ]
No need to get cute with a smaller stack at this stage of tourney. Your in great health and now is not the time to make a stand with a marginal hand against a player who most likey has a solid hand and is assuredly going to call your post flop bet, at least he should. i probably call his raise and am playing for set value, and if not check-fold on that board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Playing this hand for set value is highly -EV. I'm going to hit a set about 1 time in 8, and I'm calling 400 preflop to win 2600 (the pot plus the rest of his stack). Even assuming that I get his entire stack every single time, I'm only getting 6-1, and the fact is that sometimes I'm not going to get his whole stack, and once in a while I'm going to flop a set and lose anyway. If you are only going to play on if you hit a set, I think you should fold to the preflop raise, and I don't think it is close.

You're telling me that if you you think that if the short stack had a medium pair (which, as it happens, he did, though he hit a set with it), he would automatically call an all-in on a board with 2 overcards? I don't think that is right.
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