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Old 06-03-2005, 09:21 PM
MarkGritter MarkGritter is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 244
Default Re: Pretty common situation which I\'m unsure of.

[ QUOTE ]

Third Round:

A: -- -- -- -- --
B: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 6c 8s 3d 4d As
C: -- -- -- -- --

B checks. Hero checks. C bets
$.50. A calls. B calls. Hero…..

Pot way too small here to have one shot at these outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Way too small. There are only 3 big bets in the pot.

You need a 2, 5, or 7 to make a hand. But, the 7 only gives you an 87643. You are beaten by any other 87 except 87652 and 87653. So the 7 really only helps if C is still drawing (in which case you are still probably a big dog) or is betting a 9 into four other players.

I don't think C is drawing here--- he didn't bet when he improved to a 1-card draw; if he's generally passive then he's probably pat.

To break even on a call you need to win 25% of the time. (1 win at +3, 3 losses at -1.) You have at most 12 outs, but realistically more like 5-7 or fewer. (It is virtually certain that a 2 or a 5 appears in somebody's hand at this point, and you could be drawing dead.) With 37 cards unknown, your chances of winning are no greater than 5/34 to 7/36 -- 15% to 19%.

Finally, your implied odds suck. You are likely to lose an additional bet even if you make your hand and call, and unlikely to pick up an additional bet if you improve to the best hand.

I estimate it would take more than 5-6 big bets before you can even think of calling.

EDIT: Duh, I didn't see that both the other players call, so you're getting 5:1 four-handed, not 3:1 heads-up. The math is more complicated there... I can't see you having 16% equity against three players, though.
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