Thread: OOPS!
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Old 05-12-2003, 12:37 PM
Homer Homer is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 5,909
Default Re: OOPS!

What do you guys think?

I would bet the flop. All kinds of overcards will call on the flop, but not on the turn. Bigger pairs will raise. By betting the flop you get a better feel for who has what, and how to play on the turn to make the most money. In other words, if you bet the flop and the player to your immediate left raises, you should consider check-raising the turn to trap the remaining players in the middle for multiple bets. If it is called/folded around to the player to your right, who raises, you should bet out on the turn.

Your best chance to make any money with this hand is on the flop. Give overcards a chance to take one off.

Is this correct thinking?

If your opponents cards were random, then yes. If they are sane, which they seem to be in this instance, the chances are much less. This is because there are much less limping hands that contain an 8 than contain big cards. So the probability of one of them having an 8 is not really random. It's probably 1/2 to 1/4 as likely as you calculated (5-10% chance).

Do you call, reraise, or fold and how close is it?

Provided that the button is a thinking opponent, your raise on the river is pretty bad. Against a horrible opponent, who would raise the river with a bare A, your raise could be solid. The button knows that you raised preflop from the BB, which pretty much guarantees that you have AA/KK/QQ/AKs. So his river raise has no value at all if he has only an A, since all he can beat is KK, which you will fold to his raise. He can only lose more money by being reraised by AA and QQ. To me this indicates that he must have an 8. I would just call. After being four-bet on the river, I would call even if I knew in my heart that it was wrong. The pot is huge and maybe, just maybe, I was wrong about the button being a sane player and he only has a bare A.

-- Homer
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