[tewall]

I think you're right. The hardest of the questions is, I think, whether the button should call SB's reraise. It's easy to assume that the button should fold because he will be up against a better ace or a pair.

However, against a pair an A2 should win about 30% of the time, and even against a better ace he's not necessarily in bad shape. If the better ace is something like A5 there will be a lot of ties. It's only if the better ace is something like AT that A2 really gets dominated, and even in this worse case scenario A2 still wins 23% of the time, which isn't too far off from the 32% he needs. If you take into account the hands like KQ and so forth that the SB could have, this seems like a borderline call.

The key question would be with what hands the SB would raise with.