[Atropos]

I dont take this as an insult, I just think it is complete bullshit. I hate those posts where people only talk and dont use any numbers to make a point.

If you decide to flip coins with a rich man. He will pay you 5$ if the coin hits heads, you lose 1$ if it hits tails. Seems like a good game?

After 100 flips you are down 100$. The coin seems normal, so you figure the odds of hitting heads/tails are 50% each. Maybe the coin is a little rigged so that it is 55:45 but you dont know that. (like you dont know your exact winrate).

However you can say: The chance I hit heads is 50%. I did not hit heads over 100 flips. The chance for this is (1/2)^exp 100. You assume that your winrate is not -100$/100 flips for this game, because the outcome seems highly unlikely to you. You hope that the probabilities will even out at some time, the so called LONG RUN.

If you argue, plz argue with that. I am not impressed by words, if you think you are above "beginner" level and classify others you have to prove it to me first. Otherwise I would prefer if you do not answer in my threads anymore, because you do not add anything of worth. Dont take this as an insult, it's just the way I see things.