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Old 03-26-2003, 01:05 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,636
Default Re: HE: Backdoor flush = + 2 outs?

Actually I see no use for thinking of it as 2 outs even when you are all-in, but it has that effect mathematically. The probability of making your hand is the same when you go all-in on the flop, but you don't need the pot odds to be as high to go all-in since you now get to see both cards for the same price. The pot odds you need are still determined by the odds of hitting 1 out with 2 cards to come (23-1), and these are approximately the same odds you would need to see the turn if you had 2 outs and you were not all-in. I was just trying to make sense of the statement about it being worth 2 outs.

For example, if you had middle pair along with your backdoor flush draw, and you thought 2-pair would be good, then if you could not go all-in, you would count this as 6 outs for the purpose of calling a bet on the flop (5+1), and you would need pot odds of 41-6 or 6.8-1 to call. But if you could go all-in on the flop, then this is 6 outs with 2 cards to come, and you would only need pot odds of 1-(41/47)(40/46) = 4.1-1. You should memorize that 6 outs with 2 cards to come was about 4-1, you should not say that you have 6 outs twice for 12 outs which requires pot odds of 35-12 or 2.9-1. This is inaccurate, and it would be even more inaccurate for a larger number of outs, though it would be fairly accurate if all you had were the backdoor draw.
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