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Old 03-08-2003, 03:27 PM
adios adios is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 2,298
Default Re: 2004 Political Prediction

Yeah Gore is an obvious omission. Since I'm sticking my neck out I'll really stick it out. I think that if Hussein doesn't abdicate (I know it seems like a remote possibility but it could happen and holding his feet to the fire is the only way it will ever happen) the USA will still win a decisive, easy victory in Iraq. At that point the uncertainty regarding Iraq will be dissipated and I think his, Bush's, popularity will start to rise. If the Democrats in Congress continue to stone wall his economic initiatives and the economy remains soft I do think there is a decent chance that a lot of voters will be turned off by the stone walling. If he runs against a liberal, he wins on all the other issues except maybe the abortion issue. If he runs against a centrast Democrat like Grahm he may have his hands full. However, Grahm does have a few weaknesses as I mentioned. The last person that ran and won as a member of Congress was JFK. Even though many would consider daddy Bush, LBJ, and Nixon Washington insiders; the voters IMO generally reject pols running for president from this ilk. Daddy Bush more or less rode Reagan's coattails to victory and had served for quite some time as an appointed official in various administrations. Nixon had been away from Washington for 8 years. LBJ was probably the last clear cut Washington insider that won a presidential election. Gore and Gerald Ford almost pulled out victories but not quite. We'll see what happens.
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