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Old 04-19-2005, 05:05 PM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 759
Default Re: Difficult Draw Tournament Decision

This seems pretty clear to me, but let's work out some
details just to be sure. I couldn't tell that this tourney
was PL, but I'll assume it is.

In case (a), if the BB wins, your equity will be around
310 euros and if the button wins, your equity will be around
350 euros. Most likely, the BB will win, especially if he
has noticed you folding a lot and it seems like you woke up
with a big hand but he is still willing to put in chips now
that everyone is playing! So say it's just above 320 euros
for case (a).

In case (b), it doesn't seem likely you have the best hand
unless the BB is an awful tournament player: why is he
getting involved when it seems so likely that the short
stack will get eliminated this very hand?

Sure, the button might have reraised with any two pair or
even a hand like KKA if he thought the small stack was going
all in with a hand like TT. Your reraise signals that you
have a legitimate hand, at least a hand like aces up or
trips or better. The BB expects to get called by somebody
since it seems that there is at least one legitimate hand
here. Since the button pushed, he must have a real hand to
play given your raise and a reraise unless he isn't a tough
player (I think he ought to muck anything less than high
trips in his spot). I would think if these players are
decent, you would expect the BB to hold at least medium
trips (given you said he was a bit loose) and the button to
have at least big trips too. So what were your side
cards? Since you didn't mention you held an ace or king, I
assume they weren't present in your hand and we'll say you
held a medium card (thus decreasing the chances of someone
holding that specific rank for trips to just over 1/4 of
what is normal). If someone holds medium trips or better,
he will be pat about 40% of the time and in this situation
(the small stack could have AA or KK as well as JJ or TT)
about 25% of the time, this player will have bigger trips
than you. You are against two opponents, so you may have
less than a 15% chance of having the best hand before the
draw. Optimistically, it might be 20% and add to that
about a 10% chance of improving your hand (btw, sometimes
you may improve and still lose!).

So let's say that you are going to draw down to your three
queens if you play and overall you will end up with the very
best hand about 30% of the time and the rest of the time,
you end up being third, so your overall equity is just over
260 euros. Also, even if you think you'll end up with the
best hand about half the time, and finish third the rest of
the time, your equity is just over 310 euros.

It seems quite clear that you should fold since it is likely
that you will not end up with the best hand against your
primary opponents (the BB and the button) close to half of
the time.
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