[ThisHo]

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But if I understand what you are suggesting - if you have the same 4 outer on the river - let's say for the nut inside straight draw (about a 9:1 probability) and one time you have to bet 2$ to win $20 and another time you have to bet $10 to win $100, those two events have to be considered completely independent of each other. So even though you might win a few of the $20 pots and you might lose more of the $10 wagers, thus creating a net loss on the same play that isn't a consideration here because they are entirely independent events.


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First of all, a gut-shot ("inside") straight draw is closer to 11:1 than it is to 9:1. I use 10:1 because its easy to remember, but the actual math is 10.5:1. I just wanted to point this out.

Second:
stop thinking in terms of $ and think in terms of units bet. It doesn't matter if you bounce between limits. If you play for the rest of your life then the law of large numbers takes over and things return to the average (i.e. 1 time in 11.5 tries you'll hit your gut-shot no matter what level you play).
If you have to call 1BigBet when there are 10BigBets in the pot then you are getting 10:1 no matter what that BigBet is ($1, $6, $10, $100, $1000, $10,000 -- doesn't matter).

The reason that its so important to play within your bankroll is that its not unlikely that you could go 15 or 20 gut shots in a row and miss them all. If you are getting correct pot odds to make the call you are "winning" in the long run, but short term variance is a cold hearted biyatch!

Pot Odds = $in pot / $ to call current bet
Cards Odds = (cards left - outs) / outs

If Pot Odds are larger then card odds you need to call no matter what size the apple is.

ThisHo