[laserboy]

There is no fee to look at the article, you can just click on the PDF file at the bottom of the page. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Here is the summary:

1) Between July 1959 and March 2004 average monthly returns on the S&P 500 and equally weighted commodity futures were remarkably similar at 10.8%, and 10.5%, respectively.

***Commodities have outperformed everything since then

2) They are also similar over economic expansions with 12.8% returns for the S&P 500 and 12.9% on equally weighted commodity futures.

3) During late stages of expansion when stock and bond returns are below average commodity returns are positive and outperform both stocks and bonds.

4) During the early stages of recession stocks, bonds and commodity returns are negative -15.5% and -2.9% respectively. By comparison the returns on commodity are positive by 3.5%.

They somehow came up with 1959-2004 as encompassing exactly 7 business cycles.

I highly recommend Rogers' books though. Even if you aren't into investing, his books are very entertaining. Particularly Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist. Warren Buffett once called Rogers the finest Securities Analysis professor in the country.

Interesting facts:

Did you know that only one lead mine has been opened in the world in the last 25 years?

Or that over the past couple of decades Columbians have been tearing out their coffee trees to plant coca plants, the source of cocaine?

Or that with sugar prices at record lows and oil prices at record highs that sugar can be profitably converted into gasahol?