[DesertCat]

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Name a commodity that hasn't over the last twenty five years.


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Olive oil and some types of lumber, for starters. But with that said, 1980 is a bad starting point because of high inflation and high commodity prices (relative to a few years later). I suspect Julian was well aware of this when he made his famous bet. If you start in 1982-1983 and try to name commodities that have outpaced inflation, there are quite a few.

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I'm pretty sure Julian made his arguments based on data that goes back hundreds of years. The argument is essentially that in general humanity gets wealthier over time, and that means commodities get more affordable, i.e the definition of wealth is that prices lag income gains.

Certainly commodities can increase in price dramatically in short periods, but over long periods the arrow points down. Even in the case of commodities such as oil, where we are within 50-100 years of exhausting currently known supplies.

I cherry picked a little in using oil, since 1980 was an all time high for oil prices. But right now we are at a 25 year high in prices as well so I thought it was still fair. Shifting back five years, from 1975-2000 would produce similar results, since oil prices were dramatically lower in 2000.

I can't find historical data on olive oil prices, or any types of woods that support your assertions. Can you point me to public data on any commodities that do?