Re: +EV Push???
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I would like to see more analysis too. We have an intuitive but "hand-waving" argument against it. Obviously you don't want to get called, but the question is will you get called enough by the 4 other hands to make it -EV. Maybe eastbay could plug it into SNG powertools...
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There is a 20% chance that there is a bigger pocket pair yet to act. This might make it a questionable push depending on the tightness of the other players.
Here is a rough EV analysis...
If you assume you have four people behind you with a tight calling range (A7+, KQ and any pair), then this means someone will have a calling hand approximately 50% of the time behind you since the chance of a calling hand is ~15%.
The EV calculation would then be roughly
20% dominated EV ~ (.82*(-6) + .18*(7)) = -3.66BB
30% coin flip EV ~ (.45*(-6) + .55*(7)) = +1.15BB
50% folded out = + 1.5BB
Overall EV = +0.36BB
So the play itself looks +EV overall to me (again given the assumptions and given I didn't make a math error). Someone else can check whether it is a good move for tournament EV (every time there is action you are not involved in you win thus involving yourself in action costs you tournament EV).
Pokerscott
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