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I appear to be permanently stuck at 80% in my PokerPages ratings. My main problem seems to be that I don’t know when to go all-in. I have skimmed through Sklansky’s Tournament book and Ciaffone’s Pot Limit/No Limit book and have found little advice on this subject so I thought that I would discuss it a bit and get your advice.

First let me explain that PokerPages calculates its rating by taking into account how many players are in the tournament so finishing #50 in a tournament of 70 people is much worse than finishing #50 in a tournament of 165 people.

To illustrate the problem of going all-in, let’s say that I’m in a tournament of 100 people and 9 have been knocked out. I have AA in LP and before me one player goes all-in. Should I go all-in? The answer is probably not. Against a lower pair I’m a 4-1 favorite but finished #90 out of 100 20% of the time would kill my rating (unless I finished in the top 10% the rest of the time). So even in this very favorable situation I think that going all-in is incorrect.

Here’s another slightly more complicated example. Let’s say that there are 100 people in the tournament and 50 have been knocked out.

I’m in LP with KK. An MP limps in. Should I go all-in?

One reason to go all-in is that if I get called I’m a favorite to win so this is a positive expectation bet. Since it is positive EV I want to have all of my money in the pot so that I maximize the amount I earn.

Now here are three reasons not to go all-in:
1. My opponent may have AA.
2. My opponent may suck out.
3. Raising and then going all-in on the flop may be a better play.

Of these three, #2 seems to be the most serious problem. Before the flop there are, in some sense, no “great” hands. Virtually nothing is better than 4-1.

I have seen interviews with no-limit players that discuss the importance of not having to go all-in. In one interview Phil H. bragged about not having to go all-in until the final tables. Figuring out how to avoid going all-in but still staying ahead of the blinds/antes appears to be one of the critical skills that must be mastered to do well at no limit.

In fact, this reason (the aversion to going all-in) is one of the reasons, maybe the main reason, that Sklansky’s all-in System is good. Opponents are so freaked out about going all-in preflop that they fold great hands.

Until I figure out something more intelligent to do than what I’m doing now in these all-in type situations, I doubt that I will be able to get to my 85% goal in PokerPages tournaments.

Your help is appreciated.

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Comments on Comments

On the issue of betting with second pair, Pudley4 (Pud) pointed out that other 2+2 posters recommended check-calling and not betting which is what I had said. This is right. The point is, of course, that the majority of 2+2 posters feel that it is correct to put a bet into the pot in this situation while Jones suggests check-folding. I find this surprising since the odds will often be there and, if you play Jones’ starting hands, there will often be a backdoor flush or straight opportunity.

Pud’s main reason for check-folding is that it leads to other errors. He writes, “It’s too easy to call one bet on the flop, then call another on the turn, then another on the river…” That might be true, but Jones is still mistaken in saying that check-folding is the correct play.

Regarding betting flush draws on the flop Pud wrote: “Sometimes I’ll raise when it’s heads-up, sometimes I won’t raise with 6 people in.” I’m amazed by the second half of this statement. If this is a value bet, why don’t you want to put as many bets into the pot as possible?

On the issue of river bets, Pud repeats that the situation that Jones is discussing is specifically not dealing with bluffs. Whether the bet is a bluff or not is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that the opponent may fold better hands. If your bet is a bluff, you need to include it in the EV calculation. If your bet is not a bluff (as it is in the section that Pud and I are discussing), you need to include it in the EV calculation. Since Jones does not he is making a mistake.

Homer J. Simpson provided additional information on his excellent performance in LL hold ‘em. I hope to equal half of his success when and if I start playing.

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Goal Update

This past week, I spent approximately 23.5 hours on poker: 4 hours reading 2+2, 10.25 hours playing PokerPages tournaments, 8.25 hours playing ring games, and 1 hour watching Poker on TV.

I did not spend any extra money this week. I have spent a total of $438.46 out of my $1000 budget.

An update on each of the four goals (which are to be accomplished by 3/30/03):

1. Read and study Jones’ “Winning Low Limit Hold ’Em”
I have confirmed two out of the three points I need to achieve this goal. A third point (river bets) is pending a discussion with Pud. A fourth point (flush draw value bet) is pending an analysis of 10,000 hands.

2. Beat Acespade
Goal Completed on 11/5/02.
Over a period of 100 hours (3600 hands) I beat Acespade’s best lineup at the rate of over 4 BB/hr.

3. Beat Masque World Series of Poker
Goal Completed on 11/17/02

4. PokerPages 85% rating in one calendar month playing 20 tournaments
My PokerPages rating is now 77.98%. I played 6 tournaments in the past week and finished #32 out of 127, #16 out of 30, #51 out of 95, #4 out of 133, #67 out of 176, and #46 out of 97.