View Single Post
  #6  
Old 03-21-2005, 12:22 PM
sofere sofere is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 118
Default Re: Continuation bets

[ QUOTE ]
If the only time you ever bet those amounts is on continuation bets, you can expect to get smooth called and popped on the turn real often by any kind of observant player. This is no different from finding people who minraise flops they hate and fold to any action over the top. The continuation bets really should be of the same size as bets that you will make with legitimate hands. 3/4 pot seems fine to me if that's how the original poster plays his hands normally. If he plays his real hands for a wide range of bets, including bets in the range you mentioned, then such a play is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, this is very early in a tournament, so unless villain has some notes on you, he doesn't know what you normally bet. Secondly, continuation bets should have close to the same range as value bets, only weighted toward the lower end.
In this situation, if you bet 1/2 the pot, your giving him 3:1, not enough to make a flush draw profitable. He won't put you on a 5 or a 3, so you either have overs or pockets. If he will call a half pot bet, he will probably call a 75% pot bet IMO (either way it just looks like a continuation bet. And either way if he calls you get out.

[ QUOTE ]
This might be true because it's early in the tournament. But, as I mentioned before, if somebody thinks you're just making a simple continuation bet that you won't follow through on, they can call you with nothing knowing that you're likely to give up the hand on the turn. So it's not clear to me that you're necessarily beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is yet another reason to keep the pot small with a continuation bet. Betting 75% the pot means that if you want to make another bet on the turn it would probably have to be all-in.

Following OP's line:
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF bet 180, 1 caller: Pot 600 Stack now at 720
Turn bet must be All-in to (a) not look weak, (b) not give odds)

50% Continuation bet
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF, bet 120, 1 caller: Pot 480 Stack 780
Turn, if you want to fire another round, you can bet 200-300 and still be left with a managable stack.

I still think this isn't the place for a second continuation bet though (no scare card hit...if a Q hit, and villain put you on A-broadway, there's a good chance he lets go even with mid pockets), and I still think that KJ is certainly beaten way too often to make this profitable.
Reply With Quote