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Old 03-07-2005, 10:34 PM
Sloats Sloats is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: New York State
Posts: 111
Default Re: Proper Flop Decision, but WHY?

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The proper decision is for the Hero to call, by why? Please note that this was on Poker Academy, so assume that the other two players were making textbook decisions based on their call and raise from early position.

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What textbook are they using? This is a very important question. Also important is how strong do they play postflop?

Using HPFAP:

UTG: Weak group 2 and group 3 hands because he didn't raise (AJs, TT, 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, AQo) - maybe some group 4 hands, but I'll leave those out.
UTG+1: Group 1 and group 2 hands (AA-TT, AK, AQs, KQs, AJs)

I think calling is thin here because you are against "by the book" players. You'll find yourself dominated in many spots and you will flop a hand with basically no redraws. If you were suited, the flush redraw would give you more profitable semi-bluff check-raising opportunities and other chances to outplay the book players.

If you did a pokerstove thing, I think you would find KQo being in a bad spot. Maybe you would have the immediate odds to call, but reverse implied odds come in dramatically here.


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The Software references Sklansky so I believe that the 'by the book' reference HPFAP. The reason why I put this in Micro was not only because these were the lowest 'skilled' players but also because I found delving into the thought process of why it was a good call to be informative. Really thinking about it instead of just saying "Chris Daddy Cool would have called this" (or told me to call it).

I put the raiser on AJs, did some math, and found that I was 38%. Much better than the 5.5:1.

Heads up against the raiser:
AA 13% (6)
AKs 23% (3)
AKo 25% (8)
AQs 24% (3)
AJs 38% (4)
KK 8% (3)
QQ 31% (3)
JJ 43% (8)
TT 43% (8)

Looking at this, only Aces and Kings would put me too far behind.
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