Re: I don\'t see many hands like this posted.
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I don't see how effective odds come into play here.
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Since I disagree with Nate, I can only assume that I am somehow wrong. But...
I thought in this situation, you would use effective odds on a call down. Assuming villian bets again on the river 100% of the time (cleary not the case), our odds on a call down are:
(4.66 + 2) : 1
= 3.3:1.
What aren't I seeing?
Note: This still brings us to the same conclusion as Nate (who estimated we're good 35% of the time), just that it used effective odds to justify it.
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