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Old 12-10-2002, 06:40 PM
Kurn, son of Mogh Kurn, son of Mogh is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Cranston, RI
Posts: 4,011
Default Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

The 5% figure for lifetime winners out of total players is deceptive. I would guess it includes those who play just for fun in home games, just for fun once a year in casinos, those who play once or twice, lose and are turned off to the game, etc., etc., etc.

In reality, all players are not equal units, and this calculation is comparing apples, oranges, pears and oragutans.

Of course the overall number of players is slanted towards losers, but I, for one, think the number overstates the difficulty of being a long-term winner. Now before anybody jumps down my throat, I'm certainly not saying that being a long-term winner is easy. What I am saying is that there are certain systemic factors that slant the numbers towards the 5%.

1) short-timers who leave behind because they aren't comfortable in the game

2) the usual initial winners, who when they start to lose, blame luck rather than trying to learn how to play better.

3) low-limit winners that try to move up too fast, get discouraged and bust out.

Too make a long story short - how do I know I'm doing well? Aside from the all important bottom line, am I learning from my mistakes? Am I learning how to vary my play? Is my hand reading getting better? Am I staying patient and emotionally detached(here's that Zen thing again)?

This is another reason online play is great. You can download your hand history and debrief your self after a session.
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