Re: ICM is often flawed
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ICM numbers are wrong a lot of the time, especially late in an event with big blinds, and short stacks. To use them to guide your play in these situations is often flat out wrong, yet a lot of people seem to be doing this. Any comments or opinions?
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Agreed 100%. I'm working on an adjustment, and will post my new formula once I come up with a decent rev.
ICM fails to take into account:
1) Blind sizes (this is a ridiculously huge oversight)
2) Your position (also huge)
3) Calling/Pushing standards for you and your opponents
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I think 1 & 2 are overstated and 3 just doesn't make any sense to me. What's 3 got to do with it?
Blind sizes are the same for everyone. Why is that a "ridiculous huge oversight"?
As for position, unless you're down to a couple of blinds, I'm not sure why this is a big deal, either. Your position changes with each hand and everyone gets their turn.
My guess is that any set of heuristics you try to apply to adjust for factors X or Y will end up only generating more confusion and questions about validity. I'm interested to see what you come up with, though.
In any case, I think it's maybe important to recognize that the $EV figures generated don't have to be accurate in an absolute sense. They only have to give an ordering which is reasonable. Big difference.
eastbay
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