Re: ICM is often flawed
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ICM numbers are wrong a lot of the time, especially late in an event with big blinds, and short stacks. To use them to guide your play in these situations is often flat out wrong, yet a lot of people seem to be doing this. Any comments or opinions?
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Agreed 100%. I'm working on an adjustment, and will post my new formula once I come up with a decent rev.
ICM fails to take into account:
1) Blind sizes (this is a ridiculously huge oversight)
2) Your position (also huge)
3) Calling/Pushing standards for you and your opponents
4) Your relative skill vs. your opponents
5) Your folding equity before and after
6) Your opponents' folding equity, especially for short stacks.
My plan is to weight the stack sizes based on the above factors, then run the adjusted numbers through ICM. I believe that if you truly value the size of your current chip position correctly, then ICM will work as it should.
Opinions?
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